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La mer, la fin...

lunedì 8 giugno 2009

Prato al voto. Commenti

Aria di ballottaggio? Forse... Ma attenzione alle dinamiche locali!
MV

da la Nazione del 08/06/09
C’è sempre più aria di ballottaggio

Voto europeo ‘proiettato’ sul Comune: Pd-Pdl testa a testa. Lega e Idv, exploit
LEGA E ITALIA dei valori: un exploit. Pd in netto calo, Pdl in ascesa. Sinistra radicale in chiara flessione, Udc stabile. Se i risultati delle amministrative dovessero ricalcare quelli delle europee sarebbe ballottaggio fra Massimo Carlesi e Roberto Cenni, mentre in Provincia Lamberto Gestri ce la potrebbe fare al primo turno. I se sono d’obbligo, è chiaro che le consultazioni elettorali sono diverse, ma i primi numeri usciti dalle urne sono abbastanza clamorosi (i dati si riferiscono a 140 sezioni su 178): la forbice fra i sostenitori di Carlesi e quelli di Cenni è meno di un punto percentuale, cioé 47.1 centrosinistra e 46.5 centrodestra. Il Pd è al 37.7, il Pdl al 35. Nel 2004 Romagnoli staccò Bernocchi di 20 punti. Quella di oggi è tutta un’altra storia.

NEL DETTAGLIO, col 37.7% (dati parziali) il Pd perde quasi dieci punti sulle politiche dell’anno scorso e tre e mezzo rispetto a quanto Margherita e Ds conquistarono insieme alle europee del 2004. Il Pdl è invece al 35%, aveva il 33% nel 2008, il 31% (An e Forza Italia insieme) alle ultime europee. La Lega balza al 6.1%, contro il 2.5 dell’anno scorso e solo l’1% del 2004. L’Italia dei valori mette a segno il 6.9%, contro il 3.8% del 2008 e l’1.7 delle europee di cinque anni fa. Fra i partiti che sostengono Carlesi, Sinistra & libertà è al 2.4%, mentre del Pdci non si può dire, visto che ha ottenuto il 2.8% insieme a Rifondazione, che corre da sola. Il pool con Carlesi, ai parziali di ieri notte (140 sezioni su 178), non supera quota 50%. Fra i supporter di Cenni, ci sono invece l’Udc al 4.3% e La Destra sociale allo 0.7%. La lista Bonino si ferma al 2.4%.

LO SCRUTINIO oggi inizierà alle 14, partendo dalla Provincia, i cui risultati si dovrebbero conoscere verso le 18. Più difficile fare previsioni sul Comune: la sfida è talmente aperta che potrebbe essere questione di poche centinaia di voti. Gli addetti ai lavori ipotizzano che prima della mezzanotte non si potrà sapere come andrà finire: se anche ci fossero tre o quattro sezioni in ritardo con lo scrutinio (succede quasi sempre) non sarebbe possibile prevedere con certezza il risultato finale. Mai un verdetto elettorale è stato così incerto e atteso.
Anna Beltrame

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